Date: 26 June 2026

Time: 03:30 PM BD Time

🧭 Trend Direction:

USOIL is trading inside a clear bearish continuation structure. On the D1 chart, price rejected the higher premium area and delivered multiple bearish BOS movements from the 95.00–105.00 region toward the current 69.30 area. The daily structure is showing lower highs and lower lows, with price now pressing into the discount and PDL zone. On the 4H chart, the sell-off remains strong after rejection from the 76.00–78.00 supply area, and price is now retesting the 68.80–69.40 weak-low liquidity area. The H1 chart confirms bearish continuation because price failed near the 72.20–72.60 PDH area and created a lower high before dropping back into discount. On the 15M chart, price is sitting near PDL after a bearish BOS, so the current phase is bearish continuation with possible sell-side liquidity grab.

🪄 Technical Price Action:

Current price is around 69.35–69.40. The nearest support is 68.80–69.10, which is the current weak-low and PDL liquidity area. If this zone breaks with strong displacement, price can expand toward 68.20 and then 67.50. The nearest resistance is 69.85–70.20, followed by 70.70–71.00 equilibrium. A stronger intraday sell zone is 71.40–72.20, where the recent 1H rejection and PDH area are located. The broader premium supply remains far above at 76.00–78.00, but for intraday sniper execution, 70.70–72.20 is the key institutional sell cluster.

🪁 Smart Money Concept:

Buy-side liquidity is resting above 70.20, then above 71.00, and the main buy-side pool is above 72.20–72.60 PDH. Sell-side liquidity is resting below 69.00, then below 68.50, with a deeper liquidity pool around 67.50–67.80. The chart shows price already swept lower into discount, but there is no strong bullish displacement yet. The likely next move is either a small manipulation above 69.85–70.20 before another sell-off, or a direct break below 68.80 toward deeper sell-side liquidity.

📊 Volume Profile + Institutional Flow:

The intraday value area appears to be concentrated around 69.50–70.80, where price has spent the most time during the current consolidation and rejection phase. Estimated POC is around 69.80–70.00. Estimated VAH is around 71.00–71.40, and estimated VAL is around 68.80–69.10. If price accepts below 68.80, that becomes an LVN breakdown and can trigger faster continuation toward 68.20 and 67.50. The 80% rule becomes bullish only if price reclaims above 70.20 and holds; then price can rotate back through value toward 70.80, 71.40, and 72.20.

⚡ ICT Power of 3 Strategy | 1H Candle Scalping:

The 1H model currently shows accumulation around 69.00–69.80, possible manipulation into 70.20–70.70, and distribution lower if price rejects below equilibrium. A bearish PO3 setup is stronger if price first takes short-term buy-side liquidity above 70.20 and then rejects with a bearish 15M candle close. A bullish PO3 setup needs a sell-side sweep below 68.80 followed by a quick reclaim above 69.40; without reclaim, buying is risky because the higher-timeframe structure remains bearish.

📉 CCI + MACD Strategy:

CCI and MACD panels are not visible in the screenshots, so confirmation should be taken from momentum behavior. For sell continuation, CCI should reject from overbought or fail below the zero line, while MACD should show bearish crossover or bearish histogram expansion after price taps 70.20–70.70. For a buy scalp, CCI should recover from oversold and MACD should print bullish crossover after a sweep below 68.80 and reclaim above 69.40. No trade is preferred if CCI/MACD are flat while price is stuck around PDL.

🧠 Institutional Levels:

The main 15M sell order block is around 70.20–70.70. The stronger H1 mitigation and supply zone sits around 71.40–72.20. The 4H supply is much higher at 76.00–78.00, but it is not the immediate sniper zone unless price creates a larger retracement. Current demand is around 68.80–69.10, but this is a weak demand zone because price is testing it repeatedly. A clean bearish breaker will form if price closes below 68.80 and retests 69.10–69.40 from below. The best bullish reaction zone is 67.50–68.20 if price sweeps liquidity and quickly reclaims.

💹 FIBO, RSI & Volume Confirmation:

From the recent H1 swing high near 72.20 to the current low near 68.90, price is trading near the lower discount portion of the move. A healthy bearish retracement can reach 70.20, 70.70, or 71.40 before continuation. RSI should remain below 50 for bearish continuation; if RSI reclaims above 55 with volume expansion, the sell idea weakens. Seller dominance is confirmed if price breaks 68.80 with strong bearish volume. Buyer dominance is confirmed only if price sweeps below 68.80 and reclaims 69.40 with strong bullish volume.

🌍 Fundamental Bias:

The fundamental bias is still bearish for oil intraday. Reuters reported oil fell around 2% as more tankers resumed movement through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing supply-disruption pressure, while Brent and WTI were heading for weekly losses around 8%. Reuters also reported that Saudi Arabia may cut August crude prices for Asia as supply improves and spot market prices weaken. A stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish Fed expectations can also pressure USD-priced commodities like oil by reducing demand sensitivity and tightening financial conditions.

🔐 USOIL Sniper Trading Plan:

The recently active setup is bearish continuation from discount breakdown pressure. Price is sitting near 69.35, close to PDL and weak-low liquidity. The cleanest sniper entry is not to chase the low immediately. The higher-probability plan is to wait for a retracement into 69.85–70.20 or 70.40–70.70, then sell after bearish rejection. No trading method can honestly maintain guaranteed 95%–98% accuracy, but this setup is higher probability because it aligns with D1, 4H, H1, and 15M bearish structure.

📉 SELL SETUP

Entry Zone: 69.85–70.20

Stop Loss: 70.85

Target 1: 69.10

Target 2: 68.50

Target 3: 67.80

Logic:

This sell setup becomes active if USOIL retraces into 69.85–70.20, sweeps minor buy-side liquidity, and rejects with a bearish 15M close. The setup aligns with bearish BOS on 15M and H1, price below equilibrium, and institutional distribution from the previous lower-high structure. Volume Profile supports the sell idea if price rejects near POC/VAH and then breaks below VAL around 68.80–69.10. MACD bearish crossover and CCI failure below the zero line would add confirmation. The first target is 69.10 because it is the weak-low and PDL area; if broken, 68.50 and 67.80 become the next sell-side liquidity pools.

📈 BUY SETUP

Entry Zone: 68.20–68.60 after sweep and reclaim above 69.00

Stop Loss: 67.45

Target 1: 69.40

Target 2: 70.20

Target 3: 71.40

Logic:

This buy setup is only valid after price sweeps sell-side liquidity below 68.80 and quickly reclaims above 69.00–69.10. That would show a stop hunt below PDL, discount accumulation, and bullish distribution back into intraday value. The buy is not valid if price simply keeps closing below 68.80, because that would confirm bearish continuation. Bullish confirmation needs a strong reclaim candle, rising volume, MACD bullish crossover, and CCI recovery from oversold territory.

🎭 Market Summary:

USOIL remains bearish below 70.70 and especially below 72.20. The best sniper idea is sell the retracement into 69.85–70.20, targeting 69.10, 68.50, and 67.80. A buy is only an alternate scalp after a deep sell-side liquidity sweep below 68.80 followed by a strong reclaim above 69.00. Current market structure favors sellers until price reclaims 70.70 and builds acceptance above equilibrium.

USOIL Institutional Market Analysis Date: 26 June 2026